Source:
The graph displayed uses two sources for information:
Microlending: For the microlending component, Celent’s leading research reports were used. The first report can be found here: http://www.celent.com/PressReleases/20050928/Microfinance.htm Their most recent data, with forecasts for microlending in 2008, 2009 and 2010, can be found here: http://www.thedigeratilife.com/blog/index.php/2008/01/14/the-brand-new-world-of-peer-to-peer-lending/
Venture Capital: The venture capital data was derived from NVCA’s historical data charts, which contain a data set labeled, “Venture Capital Investment Dollars by Stage.” The seed/early stage data was used: http://nvca-chartbox.ichartsbusiness.com/
*The forecasts for years, 2009 and 2010, were derived from, (i) NVCA’s 90% consensus that growth would decline, (ii) compounded -10% growth figure used as the consistent metric to measure that decline.
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Why scary? Given enough transparency, and coupled with a recommendation engine a la Digg — and assuming folks could not vote unless they are willing to ante up for first adopter purchases (in escrow) — rather than just having investment skin in the game while dreaming of faux blue oceans with all those potential customers swimming therein, this would be an excellent barometer for actual market desire (capitalized) vs. pipe dreams and wishes.